Agricultural Bank (601288) comment report: interest margins fluctuate slightly, asset quality is stable
Event: Agricultural Bank of China announced 2018 annual results on March 30, 2019.
Investment highlights: Pre-provision profit will increase by 15%, and risk assets are expected to increase by 8.
8%: Operating income in 2018 increased by 12 in ten years.
5%, to achieve a 15% increase in profit before provisioning, and to increase the net profit of mother and mother by 5.
1%, the provision for accrual was further increased.
The balance of deposits increased by 7 from the beginning of the year.
1%, the loan budget increased by 11.
4%, with an expected annual growth of 8 risk assets.
The quarter-to-quarter net interest margin of the fourth quarter of 2018: The downlink of the single quarter net interest margin in the fourth quarter is that the cost of the debt side rises significantly faster than the asset side.
Debt-side costs have risen rapidly, and due to the rise in the cost of deposits and interest payments, the substitution of deposits has also caused some drag.
On the asset side, the proportion of high-interest loans has increased.
The increase in public loans is mainly concentrated in the infrastructure industry: from the perspective of the structure of new credit, the increase in public and retail loans accounted for 40% and 60%.
The main industry for new corporate growth is the infrastructure industry; new retail loans are mainly focused on mortgage loans.
On the debt side, the proportion of demand deposits continued to rise, accounting for 58.
3%, the proportion of personal deposits continued to rise, reaching 57.
The growth rate of net fee income remained basically stable: from a structural point of view, accounting for a relatively high bank 南京桑拿网 card fee, the settlement business still maintained a rapid growth, while the growth rate of the agency sales business slightly narrowed.
Asset quality remained basically stable: from the perspective of bad net generation, overdue and provisioning, the asset quality of Agricultural Bank of China has been continuously consolidated.
Looking at the changes in the non-performing structure of various types of loans, the non-performing ratio of retail loans has steadily decreased. Among public loans, in addition to traditional manufacturing, the non-performing ratio of the transportation industry, leasing and business services, and the real estate industry has increased.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Although the average ratio of personal deposits and demand deposits has risen, the overall cost of deposits is 苏州夜网论坛 still on the rise.
The cost of accepting bribes has risen rapidly, and the net interest margin in the fourth quarter has fluctuated slightly.
In terms of asset quality, the overall stability has remained basically stable, and the non-performing loan ratio of real estate and infrastructure-related industries has risen. Changes in this part of asset quality in the future still need to continue to be observed.
The company currently expects the corresponding 2019-2020 PB estimate to be zero.
75 times, 0.
68 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.
Risk factors: The economic recession is better than expected; the market decline presents systemic risks.