Shuanghui Development (000895): Terminal Survey Series 4: Terminal prices of some large single items continue to increase and the turnover of high-temperature meat products is accelerated

Shuanghui Development (000895): Terminal Survey Series 4: Terminal prices of some large single items continue to increase and the turnover of high-temperature meat products is accelerated

Event: We visited a total of 14 large supermarkets in 7 urban areas of Beijing and Shanghai to investigate the retail situation of meat products.

This issue summarizes the survey data and samples obtained from the survey on October 20, 2019 for investors’ reference.

Investment rating and estimation: Maintain profit forecast, forecast net profit attributable to mothers to be 54 in 19-21.

26 billion, 58.

08 billion, 66.

8.7 billion, an increase of 10%, 7%, and 15% over the same period. The current PE is expected to be 20x, 19x, and 16x in 19-21. Maintain BUY rating.

We are optimistic about the company’s core logic: 1. The African swine fever epidemic will reshape the industry structure, Shuanghui’s leading position will continue to strengthen, and there will be some pressure on the short-term slaughter volume, but the mid- and long-term Shuanghui’s slaughter market share and profit elasticity will be stablePromotion.

2. The most difficult period for meat products has passed. Since 2018, the company has made all-round adjustments 天津夜网 from research and development, products, channels, marketing, personnel and incentives around “adjusting the structure”, and determined long-term improvement trends.

3. At the high point of the pig cycle, the company is expected to once again leapfrog the ton price and ton profit, and the cost pressure is less than the market’s pessimistic expectations.

High-temperature meat products: The terminal prices of some large single products have continued to increase, and the turnaround speed has obvious advantages in accelerating the age of goods.

1. King Wang series: In terms of price, the price center of 40g King Wang moves up, the price center of 60g King Wang remains the same, the price center of new King Wang drops slightly, and the price range of King Wang without starch narrows.Promoted.

In terms of cargo age, Shuanghui Wangzhongwang’s cargo age is shorter than the previous period, basically within 2 months, and the average cargo age is shorter than competing products, and the delivery speed is also faster than competing products.

The general age of Shuanghui New King Zhongwang has been shortened to 2 months. Within a few supermarkets, there are products with older age. Overall, the new age of Shuanghui New King Zhongwang is shorter than that of competing products.

The average age of Shuanghui’s starch-free kings is less than 2 months in a row, but the average age is longer than competing products.

2. Corn hot dog intestines and spicy sausages: In terms of price, the price of corn hot dog intestines moves upwards, increasing by about 10%; the price range of spicy and crispy sausages narrows, and the price center moves upwards.

In terms of cargo age, the cargo age of Shuanghui corn hot dog intestines is basically within one and a half months, and the average cargo age is shorter than that of competing products.

The overall age of Shuanghui’s spicy and crispy sausage is basically the same as the previous period, which is slightly longer than the competitive products.

3. Instant noodle partner and moisturizing sweetness and crunchiness: In terms of price, the instant price center of instant noodle partner significantly moves up, and the price increases by more than 10%; the price range of moisturizing sweetness and sweetness enlarges and the center moves up.

In terms of cargo age, the production dates of Shuanghui Instant Noodle Partner and Runkou Sweet and Crispy Products are basically based on the end of August and beyond, and the previous period of cargo age has been significantly shortened.

Low-temperature meat products: The price increase of some products has increased, and the age of goods is generally slightly longer than that of competing products.

In terms of price, the price range of Shuanghui ham slices has remained unchanged; the price range of Shuanghui Sandwich sausage has narrowed and the center has moved upward, and the terminal price has increased by more than 15%; the price of Shuanghui lunch square has been narrowed, and the price has been increased by 10%; Shuanghui Bacon’s price center moved up, and the price increased by about 15%.

The price range of Shuanghui’s starch-free ham narrowed and the price center moved upward, while the price range of Shuanghui’s Taiwan-style sausages expanded slightly and the price center moved downward.

In terms of age, the age range of Shuanghui ham slices is longer than that of competing products, and the delivery speed is faster than that of competing products.

The average age of Shuanghui Sandwich Sausages, lunch sausages, and Taiwanese flavored sausages was more than that of competing products.

Shuanghui Bacon ships faster than competing products.

The average age of Shuanghui ham is more than tons of competitive products.

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